Aging polpulation
Population aging is constituted by a shift in the distribution of a country’s population towards greater ages. Thus an increase in the population’s mean or median age, a decline in the fraction of the population composed of children, or a rise in the fraction of the that is elderly are all aspects of population ageing.
Population aging is a highly generalised process, it is most advanced in the most highly developed countries. Among the countries currently classified by the United Nations as more developed (with a population of 1.2 billion in 2005), the median age of the population rose from 29.0 in 1950 to 37.3 in 2000, and is forecast to rise to 45.5 by 2050. The corresponding figures for the world as a whole are 23.9 for 1950, 26.8 for 2000, and 37.8 for 2050. In Japan, one of the fastest aging countries in the world, in 1950 there were 9.3 people under 20 for every person over 65. By 2025, this ratio is forecast to be 0.59 people under 20 for every person older than 65 (United Nations, 2004).
The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by raising the number of years that each person is old relative to number of years in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average age of the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the young) to people born further in the past (the old). Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the dominant contributor to population aging in the world today (Weil, 1997).
More specifically, it is the large decline in the total fertility rate over the last half century that is primarily responsible for the population aging that is taking place in the world’s most developed countries. Because many developing countries are going through faster fertility transitions, they will experience even faster population aging than the currently developed countries in the future.
Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future. In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50.
Most of the developed world (with the notable exception of the United States) now has sub-replacement fertility levels, and population growth now depends largely on immigration together with population momentum which arises from previous large generations now enjoying longer life expectancy.
The effects of an aging population are considerable. Economically, older people are more likely to be saving money and less likely to be spending it on consumer goods. This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure. Some economists (Japan) are seeing advantages in this evolution, notably the possibility to go further in automatisation and technological development without the burden of social effects from reducing the wage labour force and unemployment. They emphasise a shift from GDP to Personal well being. It is also a start to reverse the evolution to world overpopulation.
Social welfare systems have also begun to experience problems. Earlier pay-as-you-go pension systems are now almost completely unsustainable due to population aging and the historical fact that, in some regions like Europe, they are still largely funded by taxes on labour. The largest area of expenditure in many countries is now health care and the cost of health systems will increase dramatically as populations age, a situation which will face many governments with hard choices between higher taxes, a change in tax systems (f.i. from labour to consumption) or a reduced government role in providing health care.
The second largest expenditure of most governments is education and these expenses will tend to fall with an aging population, although this may be partly offset by the increasing proportion of the young population who continue into tertiary education.
Canada has the highest per capita immigration rate in the world, based largely on the rationale of countering population ageing. However, the economic impact of immigration to Canada can be described as mixed as best, and the C. D. Howe Institute, a conservative think tank, has suggested that immigration can not be used a viable means of countering population ageing.
1. Aging population is commonly happend in what kind of country?
2. What is the two sources of population aging? Why?
4. List any two effects that cause by aging population.
10 comments:
1. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2. The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility.
3. Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future, and average age will be approaching 50.
4. This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.
5. Yes, China is facing the problem of population aging. They are looking for some policy to solve this problem.
6. It’s a hard question, and I really don’t know how to make the situation better.
7. I think yes, because technology is developing, people live longer and healthier than before.
1. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2. The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by raising the number of years that each person is old relative to number of years in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average age of the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the young) to people born further in the past (the old).
3. Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future. The average age will be approaching 50.
4.
(1)lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.
(2) the cost of health systems will increase dramatically as populations age.
5.
(1)Yes
(2)No
6. To encourage old people to live in other coutry to enjoy there retired life.
7. Yes. Because of rising life expectancy and declining fertility, the population aging will be a serious problem for all countries in the near future.
1- In developed countries.
2-Rising life expectancy and declining fertility.
3-Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future. The average age might be 50.
4-lower interest rates and the cost of health systems will increase.
5-No, it is not. beacause the percentage of the youth is very high.
6-I would allow the couples to have lots of children.
7-yes, i do, because old people can not help the country to be developed.
1.it is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2.The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility. An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by raising the number of years that each person is old relative to number of years in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average age of the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the young) to people born further in the past (the old).
3.Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future.In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50.
4.This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.Earlier pay-as-you-go pension systems are now almost completely unsustainable.
5.Yes,China is facing the problem of population aging. Government should prolong the period of working, put off the retirement; as a result, old people can feed up themselves.
6.increase the fertility
7.Yes, less young people feed up more old people, living level will decline.
1. Highly developed countries
2.
1.Rising life expectancy
2.Declining fertility.
Because current older people can live longer with much power. Also, declining fertility changes the balance of population.
3. Asia and Europe
50
4.
1.deflationary pressure
2.higher taxes including reduced welfare.
5. Yes. My country(Japan) has a serious problem about aging population. The major policy from our govenment is to rise the retirement age. Older person are still young, even they became 60 years old. So, government let them work until 65, 70, or more.
6. I will encourage the older person to work even they became the age of retirement. This will be a great workforce and help the economical development.
7. Yes, I think so. Just thinking about the annuity system, problem will prevent us from peaceful lives. Why? We are living with reproducting from ancient times. Without this circulation, we can not find the way to survive.
1. In the most highly developed countries.
2. They are rising life expectancy and declining fertility, because the ratio of elder people is increasing, but that of younger, on the other hand, is dicreasing, making the gap of population.
3. Asia and Europe. It will be approaching 50.
4. They are lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.
5. Yes, goverment have gender equality policies and other alternative policies.
6. I would hire competitive and competent persons from foreign countries, exacting a tax from them.
7. Yes, because it will be a burden on young people, forcing them to pay a lot of tax, and to lose energy.
1.it is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2.The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility.
3. Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future. The average age will be approaching 50.
4.This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.
5.yes, but i am not sure what goverment does for this problem.
6. I will make some new systems to encourage young people to have babies .
7. yes. If there are only old people, how can the countries survive?
1. It is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2. The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena: rising life expectancy and declining fertility.
3. Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future, and average age will be approaching 50.
4. lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure.
5. Yes. South Korean Government is trying to increase fertile rate by encouraging young couples have baby by some incentives like financial support and lower taxation, even these policies are not efficient yet. In the other hand, they also amended the national pension system fitted to the aging society.
6. I think I should consider both population control and population aging. So,my policy shall tend to prepare aging society, for example, to amend pension system or health-care system for aging society.
7. Yes, population aging will be a disaster for the welfare policies of all governments, because the more people aging, the more government's budget will need.
1. Aging population is most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2. The sources of population aging lie in two (possibly related) demographic phenomena rising life expectancy and declining fertility.
3. Asia and Europe are the two regions. The average age will be approaching 50.
4. - lower interest rates.
- disinflation pressure.
5. We have the social security that benefits aging population. Even the money acquired by the S.S. is not to much, it is enough to life well. Also there is a other benefits such as free hospital services and medicines.
6. It is difficult to answer. But I could start fomenting the family caring for old people. Aging care center are good, but nothing equal to family environment. Moreover, I could improve the quality of the social security service taking special attention to children and aging population.
7. When young people don’t care about their health, and they don’t work enough in their productive life period, it is difficult and expensive taking care of them when they are getting old. The young population today are not visioning the future, they are not sowing today in order to harvesting tomorrow. In this point of view, young population (the majority of them) will be a hard and delicate problem in the future.
1. Aging population is commonly happend in what kind of country?
In the most advanced in the most highly developed countries.
2. What is the two sources of population aging? Why?
The sources of population aging lie in two (demographic phenomena:
Rising life expectancy
Declining fertility.
An increase in longevity raises the average age of the population by raising the number of years that each person is old relative to number of years in which he is young. A decline in fertility increases the average age of the population by changing the balance of people born recently (the young) to people born further in the past (the old). Of these two forces, it is declining fertility that is the dominant contributor to population aging in the world today (Weil, 1997).
3. Which two regions may face severe population aging in the future?What will the average age be approaching?
Asia and Europe are the two regions where a significant number of countries face severe population aging in the near future. In these regions within twenty years many countries will face a situation where the largest population cohort will be those over 65 and average age will be approaching 50.
4. List any two effects that cause by aging population.
The effects of an aging population are considerable.
Economically, older people are more likely to be saving money and less likely to be spending it on consumer goods.
Social welfare systems have also begun to experience problems. Earlier pay-as-you-go pension systems are now almost completely unsustainable due to population aging and the historical fact that, in some regions like Europe, they are still largely funded by taxes on labour.
5. Is your country facing the problem of population aging? If yes, does the government created any policy to solve this problem?
No my country does not have this type of problem.
6. If you are the government of a serious population aging country, what would you do to make the situation better?
I will to apply polices that encourage young people get married, because in this way they will have the possibility of have children.
7. Do you think population aging will be a serious problem for all countries in the near future? Why?
Of course that this counties will face a big problem, they need that the youth be in charge of the nation. Usually older people have a lot of problems related with health, so they are unable to do many things that are important in the life of the country. Right now young people’s mind is changing and they don think that be married in order to have a family is important in their life. The consequences of this behavior are being faced for many countries and in the future this can be generalized.
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